The Eligibility Cliff
The most revealing number in Australia’s NDIS overhaul is not the scheme’s projected $117bn annual cost, or even the government’s target of holding participation near 600,000. It is 144,600: the estimated number of people whose primary disability is autism or developmental delay who will leave the scheme by 2030. That figure is not a forecast of improved outcomes. It is an administrative forecast of changed eligibility. The distinction matters, because the reform’s success depends on whether a person can lose an…