Credit Saw the Guarantee Before Equity Did
Nvidia’s five-year credit default swaps jumped as much as 14 basis points on Monday to about 82, the biggest one-day rise since the contracts began trading actively in November. "The trigger was a Wall Street Journal report that Nvidia is in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI’s data-center plans." Shares barely blinked. That is the divergence everyone is supposed to notice, credit quietly repricing risk while equity keeps dancing.